Paris Masters: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Holger Rune Match Prediction

 

Holger Rune reached the semifinal at Paris Masters on his debut campaign after the world #1 Carlos Alcaraz decided to retire from the contest in the second-set tiebreaker. The retirement takes nothing away from the Dane teenager, who executed his plan to perfection and had the upper hand from the very first game of the match, 6-3 6-6 (3-1).

The talented 19-year-old was disappointed for not being able to break into the top 100 of the ATP rankings (due to the ranking freeze) 12 months ago, but he is now up to #16 (new career-high ranking) in the live rankings and has an outside chance of surpassing Hubert Hurkacz for the alternate spot at the ATP Finals.

The former Boys' French Open champion has made massive strides on the main tour over the last ten months without really facing any pressure, but that will change from now onwards. He has won two ATP titles, made his maiden quarterfinal appearance in slams at the French Open, and is just two wins away from hitting the 50-win mark for the second consecutive season (73/29 in 2021, most wins on Challenger circuits).

World #18 had faced only one top-10 player in his career before 2022 (Novak Djokovic at the US Open 2021) but has had 12 such matchups so far this year and won seven of them, including the success against Carlos Alcaraz, Andrey Rublev, and Hubert Hurkacz this week.

He went through a dry spell and lost seven matches in a row on the main tour on grass and clay a few months ago, but that now seems a long time ago as he is one of the most in-form players on the circuit right now. He reached the final in his last three outings in Sofia (L), Stockholm (W), and Basel (L) and holds an impressive 16-3 record in semifinal matches at all levels in his career.

Felix Auger Aliassime continued his unstoppable form with a dominant straight-set win over the US Open semifinalist Frances Tiafoe in the quarterfinal of Paris Masters, 6-1 6-4. He survived a tight three-setter against Mikael Ymer in the second round (R1 bye) and cleared a tricky test against a retiring Gilles Simon in the round of 16 earlier in this campaign.

No one comes close to the Canadian's record in indoor ATP events this year. He reached the final in five of the six indoor events he entered in these ten months and has collected an impressive 25 wins on the surface at the expense of only three losses, including his win against Novak Djokovic and defeat against Matteo Berrettini at the Laver Cup.

Moreover, only two players (Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic) have a longer winning streak than the world #8 on the main tour in 2022. He is currently on a 16-match winning streak and won three titles in three weeks in Florence (IH), Antwerp (IH), and Basel (IH).

This will be the 22-year-old's first semifinal appearance in Masters events since 2019 (lost to John Isner in Miami) and first in tournaments above the ATP 500 level in 2022. He was a bit unfortunate to not get this far in a couple of big events earlier this year as he lost five-setters against Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinal at the Australian Open and Rafael Nadal in the round of 16 at the French Open.

Head-to-head: Felix Auger Aliassime leads 1-0. Holger Rune and Felix Auger Aliassime are undoubtedly two of the best performers on indoor hard courts in this final phase of the season, and they will face each other for the second week running. The Dane created a handful of chances in the second set and put in a valiant fight against the Canadian in the championship match in Basel last week, and expect the pair to play out yet another close contest.